Interpreting the GOP Poll Results
National polling has not been as frequent lately, as many pollsters are focused on the races in individual states. Of the three national polls conducted from January 12 to January 23, the trend does seem to be slowly leaning in Gingrich’s favor. Romney was ahead by seven points in a January 12-January 16 CBS/NYT poll, then his lead shrunk to three points in a January 17 Rasmussen poll, and now the candidates are virtually tied, according to Gallup.
GOP Nomination: Key States vs. Nationwide Polling
Some would argue that performance in key states is more significant at this point than nationwide daily tracking, which is why many pollsters are focusing their calculations on Florida, which will hold its primaries January 31. Polling out of Florida doesn’t seem to be bringing good news for Romney, however, as Gingrich currently has an average of a 7.4 point lead, based on three polls that were conducted today and yesterday.
Romney was a consistent frontrunner in Florida between December 15, 2o11, and January 16, 2012, with his favorability percentage rising into the 20s before nosediving as of yesterday. With this much fluctuation in polling, and emerging divides within the Republican party between northerners and southerners, conservatives and moderates, the race could go in any direction, although it appears that Santorum and Paul are both struggling to keep up with frontrunners Gingrich and Romney.
Gallup. Gingrich Erases Romney’s National Lead. Accessed January 24, 2012.Decoded Science
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