Polls will close tonight in 10 states, and the outcome will determine how 20 percent of delegates to the 2012 Republican convention will be distributed.
Positive showings from primary contenders Rick Santorum and Newt Gingrich could change the direction of the race, but Gallup daily tracking polling released March 5 indicates that Romney leads the national race by 16 points. Gov. Romney garnered 38 percent of the vote among self-identified Republicans and Republican leaners nationwide, followed by Santorum with 22 percent of the vote, and Gingrich with 15 percent.
Super Tuesday: Gallup Polling Methodology
Poll results were compiled from daily tracking surveys conducted from February 29 to March 4. Respondents were self-identified Republican registered voters, and Independent voters who lean Republican. The sample size was 1211, and there were minimum quotas of 400 cell phone contacts and 600 landline contacts per 1000 total contacts. Interviews were conducted live in English and Spanish. Samples were weighted for demographics, phone status and multiple adults in households.
Trends in Momentum for Romney
Other recent national polls released by NBC News/Wall Street Journal and Rasmussen also show leads for Romney, ranging from six to 16 points. At this point, some spectators argue that the contests in individual states on Super Tuesday have a larger effect on the outcome than nationwide polling. Since the race between the three leading candidates has been so close, victories in individual states have propelled the most recent winners to the tops of most polls. Romney is the current benefactor of momentum, coming from wins in Michigan, Arizona and Washington last week.Decoded Science
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