Is Polling in Super Tuesday States Consistent with National Polling?
Super Tuesday projections released by the New York Times indicates some division in the race. Romney is projected to win Massachusetts and Virginia with nearly certain confidence, and is predicted to win the swing state of Ohio with 65 percent confidence. He is also leading in Idaho, North Dakota, Alaska and Vermont. Rick Santorum is expected to win Oklahoma with 91 percent confidence and Tennessee with 56 percent confidence. Gingrich will almost certainly win his home state of Georgia. Although Romney is currently favored by Republicans on a nationwide scale, there is more division in the Super Tuesday races.
Interpreting the GOP Poll Results
The trends in Gallup polling are consistent with nationwide trends showing Romney in the lead. Polling in individual states also seems to favor Romney, however there is still significant division in the race for the GOP nomination. For this reason, analysts will focus tonight on the states where polling is divided between two candidates. A loss in Ohio could be a devastating blow to Romney’s campaign, however a win in Tennessee could further solidify his nationwide lead.
Gallup. Romney Advances Lead Over Santorum. Accessed March 6, 2012.
Silver, Nate. A Guide to Super Tuesday Possibilities. New York Times. Accessed March 6, 2012.© Copyright 2012 Marissa Selner, All rights Reserved. Written For: Decoded Science